Trading expectancy calculator

Calculate trading expectancy, break-even win rate and gross profit factor from your win rate, average win, average loss and trading costs.

Inputs

Hypothetical example. Replace these inputs with your own.

Result

Calculation result

Example result

Expected average trade outcome: 0.1 R
Break-even win rate: 36.6667 %
Average win / average loss: 2 ratio
Gross profit factor before costs: 1.333333 ratio
Modeled total P&L: 10 R
Modeled trading costs: 10 R
Modeled total in quote currency: 1,000 quote

Every trade is modeled as a win or loss. Average wins and losses are before the separately entered uniform cost. Enter zero cost if the averages already include it.
Gross profit factor excludes entered costs. Modeled totals do not predict a sequence, compound returns or establish statistical confidence.
One R is the same chosen risk unit throughout this scenario.

Saved scenarios

Save up to 20 new-tool scenarios on this device, separately from the six existing tools. Prices and balances stay out of the URL. DCA, journal and correlation scenarios save settings and a digest, requiring the matching CSV again to calculate.

Scenario nameSaved scenario

Saving requires browser storage and Web Locks.

Formula and worked example

Expectancy = win fraction × average win − loss fraction × average loss − cost per trade. Break-even win rate = (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss). Gross profit factor excludes the separately entered costs.

Hypothetical example: 40% wins, 2R average win, 1R average loss and 0.1R costs give 0.1R expectancy and a 36.6667% break-even win rate. Over 100 modeled trades this is 10R, or 1,000 quote units if 1R is 100. The two-outcome model does not predict a sequence or prove strategy performance.

These estimates use bounded decimal arithmetic. They are scenario calculations, not trading instructions or forecasts.

Methodology sources: Investment risk and returns